Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Brazil Economic Scan | 7 May 2009

7-May-2009

Brazil Economic Scan

In this edition: Brazil wont tap sovereign fund in 2009, Brazil to buy coffee @ 23% above market price, Petrobras bets on China bankroll, Ex-Sadia executives charged with insider trading, Brazilian stocks rally for 6th day.

Top headlines

Brazil won't tap sovereign fund in 2009

  • Brazil will not tap a new sovereign wealth fund for key investment projects this year even though the economy may miss an official 2% growth forecast, Planning Minister Paulo Bernardo said.
  • Bernardo acknowledged that Latin America's largest economy could fall short of the government's forecast for 2% growth in 2009. Still, he expected the economy keep growing and avoid some market predictions it could contract 0.3%.
  • Until the 3rd quarter of last year Brazil had enjoyed sustained growth of more than 5% a year.

Brazil to Buy Coffee Up to 23% Above Market Prices

  • Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, will pay growers as much as 23 percent more than the current benchmark to help push up prices, Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said.
  • Brazil will buy as many as 3 million bags of arabica coffee from November to March for 303 reais ($143) to 320 reais a bag. The average paid yesterday in the country’s South of Minas region was 261.17 reais, according to the University of Sao Paulo’s Cepea research agency. A bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds. Brazil exported about 26.1 million bags last year.
  • Arabica-coffee futures for July delivery rose $0.25, or +0.2%, to $1.249 a pound today on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Petrobras bets on China for bankroll

  • Petrobras hopes to raise a loan from the China Development Bank, its chief executive said on Tuesday, to guarantee financing in 2010-2011 for an aggressive investment plan.
  • Brazil signed an agreement on February 19 to supply China with 100,000 to 160,000 barrels of oil a day in what Petrobras expects to lead to $10 billion in financing to develop its huge subsalt oil fields.
  • Petrobras announced earlier in 2009 that it would boost its five-year investment plan by 55% to a whopping $174 billion, when most oil majors were trimming capital spending to brace for falling demand amid the financial crisis.

Ex-Sadia Executives Charged With Insider Trading in Brazil

  • Two former Sadia SA executives were charged with insider trading by Brazilian prosecutors for purchases of Perdigao SA shares before Sadia offered to buy the rival in 2006.
  • The insider-trading charge is the first in Brazil since a law that designated the practice as a crime took effect in 2001.
  • Sao Paulo-based Perdigao, Brazil’s biggest food processor, rejected a takeover bid by Sadia in July 2006 and surpassed the rival after taking over Eleva Alimentos SA in October 2007. Perdigao is currently in talks to merge with Concordia, Brazil- based Sadia, the country’s 2nd-biggest food company.

Brazil Stocks Rise for Sixth Day, Longest Rally Since January

  • The Bovespa advanced +1.6%, to 51,499.48, the highest since Sept. 25. The index has gained 37% percent this year, bolstered by i-rate cuts and speculation of rising commodities demand from China.
  • Brazil’s Gerdau, which gets more than 25% of its profit from North America, rose +4.7% to 18.85 reais. Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 491,000 workers from payrolls in April, less than the 645,000 expected, indicating the worst of the recession’s job losses may have passed, a private report showed today.
  • Vale, which ships about 29% of its ore to China, added +0.8% to 33.15 reais. Aracruz jumped +14% to 3.61 reais, Eletropaulo Metropolitana SA, the Brazilian unit of AES Corp., rose +7.7% to 30.20 reais, Banco do Brasil SA jumped +7.7% to 21.06 reais.
Source: Brazil Economic Scan

India Economic Scan | 7 May 2009

7-May-2009

India Economic Scan

In this edition: Indian economy to grow 8% says Chief Statistician, Tata Housing starts low-cost housing project, India sugar imports in 2009 nearly complete, Indian banks raise 13.05 bln rupees via CDs, Indian stocks drop on Wednesday.

Top headlines

Indian Economy Likely To Grow 8% This Year- Chief Statistician

  • Indian economy is likely to grow 8% in the current fiscal, according to chief statistician, Pronab Sen. The finance ministry projected a growth of 6% while RBI put it at 5.7% this year. IMF estimated it pessimistically below 5%.
  • ABN AMRO PMI for April, released on Monday, showed India expanded after months of contraction while the output index for 6 core sectors for March released last week showed a growth of 2.9%, the highest in the last 6 months.
  • Sen estimates Indian economic growth close to 6.7% for the year ended March 31, 2009 following an average growth of 8.5% for 5 consecutive years.

Tata Housing to build low-cost housing near Mumbai

  • India's Tata Group launched a low-cost housing project near Mumbai, joining a spate of Indian developers that have moved to the affordable housing segment, as demand dries up for more expensive homes.
  • Unlisted group firm Tata Housing Development Co said it will invest up to 1 billion rupees in a 1,200-unit township at Boisar, in the outskirts of Mumbai, and will sell apartments at prices ranging between 390,000 rupees and 670,000 rupees.
  • The company will hold a lottery to allot flats and will sell application forms at 200 rupees each. The flats will be delivered in about 2 years.

India sugar imports in 2009 nearly complete

  • "The bulk of the imports have already been completed," Narendra Murkumbi of Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd said at the third annual International Sugar Organization/Datagro sugar conference in New York.
  • Murkumbi said "no more than 400,000 tonnes" of sugar will be brought into India in Q3 2009.
  • India's sugar production is forecast to rise to 20.8 million tonnes in 2009/10, from 14.7 million to 15.0 million tonnes the previous season. Consumption is seen at 23 million tonnes.

Indian banks raise 13.05 bln rupees via CDs

  • Indian banks raised 13.05 billion rupees via Certificates of Deposit (CDs) on Wednesday, Thomson Reuters data showed.
  • United Bank of India (UBI) raised 4.5 billion rupees by selling 6-month notes carrying a coupon rate of 4.49%. Andhra Bank sold 2.3 billion rupees of 4.4% 6-month notes. Punjab & Sind Bank, Central Bank of India, State Bank of Patiala, IndusInd Bank, IDBI Bank, also sold CDs.
  • The yield on the Reuters benchmark three-month CD fell to 3.4% from Tuesday's close of 3.65%, and volumes in the secondary CD market fell to 2.15 billion rupees from 4.5 billion rupees on Tuesday.

Indian Stocks Drop for a Second Day; ICICI, HDFC Bank Fall

  • The Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE) Sensex, fell -1.5% to 11,952.75. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the NSX slid -1% to 3,625.05. The BSE 200 Index declined -1.5% to 1,401.81. Nifty Index Futures for May delivery fell -0.7% to 3,640.50.
  • The BSE’s 18-member banking index has advanced +68% since March 9, when the benchmark index fell to its lowest level this year. In comparison, the Sensitive index has gained 46%.
  • Havells India +36% to 222 rupees, HBL Power Systems +19% to 174.20 rupees, Siemens India +2% to 332.65 rupees, Tulip Telecom +25% to 595.50 rupees.
Source: India Economic Scan

7 May 2009 edition | China Economic Scan

7-May-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: First GEB (aka "Chinese Nasdaq") listings expected in August, Chinese cargo throughput down 1.9% in April, PetroChina needs $22 billion financing, Institutional investors held 54.6% of market at end of 2008, Chinese stock indexes close up 1-2%.

Top 5 headlines

The Nasdaq Of China Is Coming

  • The first listing on China's new Growth Enterprise Board (GEB), is expected in August, with 18 tech-related companies based in Zhongguancun set to list.
  • CSRC prescribed listing rules for the GEB include; requiring that the issuer breaks even for the 2 most recent consecutive years with combined profits of at least 10 million yuan ($1.5 million). If not, issuers must have profits of at least 5 million yuan ($0.7 million) for the most recent year on revenues of at least 50 million yuan ($7.3 million), plus an annual revenue growth of at least 30% in the recent 2 years.
  • Companies are also required to have net assets of at least 20 million yuan ($2.9 million), and ideally operate for more than 3 years.

China's cargo throughput likely to fall 1.9 pct in April

  • Cargo throughput at main ports across China was estimated to reach 500 million tonnes in April, down 1.9% from a year earlier - Ministry of Transport (MOT). The breakdown was 340 million tonnes as domestic trade, and 160 million tonnes as foreign trade.
  • Daily throughput was expected to be 3.2 percentage points higher when compared with March.
  • Estimation showed sea borne container throughput at main ports in China would be 9.2 million containers, presenting a 13.4% drop from a year earlier.

PetroChina Needs as Much as $22 Billion in Financing

  • PetroChina, the world's second largest company by market value, said it may need as much as 150 billion yuan (US$22 billion) in funds during 2009 to boost cash flow and maintain CAPEX and dividends.
  • PetroChina raised 50 billion yuan through bank borrowings and a bond issue in Q1 and is seeking shareholder approval for another 100 billion yuan.
  • Free cash flow fell 76.9 billion yuan in 2008 because of taxes and investments. PetroChine intends to spend 233 billion in 2009 on acquisitions and upgrades.

Institutional investors become major stock market force

  • Statistics from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp indicated that at the end of last year, institutional investors held 54.62% of the market value of all tradable A shares, up 5.91 percentage points from a year earlier.
  • Stock values held by individual investors accounted for an overwhelming 69.87% at the end of 2005.
  • Institutional investors in China's capital markets mainly include mutual funds, social security funds, qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII), corporate annuity funds, brokerage firms, companies and organizations.

Hong Kong Stocks Advance for Fifth Day; HSBC Leads Banks Higher

  • Chinese stocks were up on all accounts with the Hang Seng Index up +2.46% to 16,835 Shanghai Composite edging up +0.98% to 2,593 Shenzhen Component closing above 10,000, having risen +2.02% to 10,149.
  • HSBC +6.3% to HK$61.60. Hang Seng Bank +10% to HK$98.85. Standard Chartered +7.4% to HK$141 saying it will post pretax profit of $248 million in Q2 from bonds it bought back or exchanged at a discount. Macquarie raised its share-price estimate to HK$147 from HK$97.
  • Citic Pacific -2.4% to HK$12.88. The company’s former Chairman Larry Yung is seeking to raise as much as HK$732 million ($94 million) selling 60 million Citic shares at HK$11.95 to HK$12.20. Li & Fung +1.4% to HK$22.35. The company is working on “plenty” of possible deals in the U.S. Company President Bruce Rockowitz said.

Financial Indicators:

Metric Value Point change % change
Hang Seng Index 16,835 404.49 2.46%
Shanghai Composite 2,593 25.18 0.98%
Shenzhen Component 10,149 201.26 2.02%
TAIEX 6,567 186.76 2.93%
CNY/USD 6.8226 -0.0009 -0.01%

Source: China Economic Scan