China Economic Scan Weekly Economic Review - 15 May 2009
15/05/2009. Source: China Economic Scan. Callum Thomas, Managing Director, China Economic Scan
In the past week a number of key indicators of economic activity came out, painting a positive picture for economic growth in China, but CPI and PPI stats showed prices continued to fall. Among those data released were output, retail sales, food exports, and urban fixed-asset investment.
China's consumer price index (CPI), fell 1.5% year on year in April 2009, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Food prices (comprising a 3rd of CPI) dropped 1.3%, dragged down by a 28.6% decline in pork prices as demand plummeted on pig flu fears. Non-food prices fell 1.5%. The index was down 0.2% since March, and the YTD fell 0.8% from the same period last year.
China's producer price index (PPI), a major measure of inflation at the wholesale level, also fell 6.6% in April year on year, according to the NBS. The decline compared with a 6.0% year on year drop in March and 4.6% in Q1 2009. Prices of production materials fell 8.1% in April year on year, the NBS said, and PPI for January-April fell 5.1% over the same period last year.
Meanwhile, China’s output rose 7.3% from a year earlier, according to the NBS, after gaining 8.3% in March, and less than analyst estimates of 8.6%. In another positive sign, retail sales grew 14.8%, above estimates of 14.5% (and 14.7% in March). The data adds to evidence that a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan is buoying domestic growth, while the global recession takes a toll on exports and related industries.
On a similar note, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China economic growth to 7-8% from 5% for 2009. Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach said growth could fall back to 5.5 to 7% in 2010, as external demand will remain weak. "It's premature to say China is enjoying a V-shaped recovery. I think the outcome is going to be closer to the letter W." he said.
New orders placed with China’s shipyards fell 95% during the first four months of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said. Orders from January to April dropped to 990,000 deadweight tons. While new orders last month reached 200,000 deadweight tons, taking total order books to 195 million deadweight tons at the end of April - 7% higher than a year earlier.
Another key indicator, China’s urban fixed-asset investment, climbed 30.5% in the first four months from a year earlier compared with a 28.6% increase in the first three months and analyst estimates of 29.1%. “Fixed-asset investment is the most important driver for economic growth this year,” said Sun Mingchun, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings.
China's food exports reached US$2.62 billion in March 2009, up 8.9% from a year earlier, presenting the first year-on-year growth in the last five months, said General Administration of Customs (GAC). Exports of fruit led growth, rising 23.5% in March, and Seafood was up 16.2% year on year. Food exports totaled US$7.17 billion Q1, down 5.5% year on year.
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The Chinese economy still appears to be a bright spot in the world. Does anyone have any views on how best to gain from a potential revival of the Chinese economy?
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