China Economic Scan Weekly Economic Review - 31 May 2009
31/05/2009. Source: China Economic Scan. Callum Thomas, Managing Director, China Economic Scan
In the week that was, the Chinese government revealed more statistics about spending of the stimulus package, and encouraged its local governments to match spending. Elsewhere growth forecasts were raised, energy prices were touted to increase and signs of gold fever stirred.
China's central government has allocated 270 billion yuan (US$39.7 billion) for infrastructure investment so far this year, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The spending is part of a planned total of 367.6 billion yuan in the 2009 central budget and brings the total already allocated since Q4 2008 to 300 billion yuan.
China has urged its local governments to cough up funds so that projects in its 4-trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan can be completed on time. Estimates are that local governments will need to raise 170 billion yuan to match the central government's first two batches of investment of 230 billion yuan. Previously a National Audit Office report found that "only 48% of the funds local governments had to contribute for 335 projects are in place".
That said, China’s growth prospects have apparently improved from three months ago, this is in spite of drops in steel and electricity output and the risk of a manufacturing contraction this month. The world’s third-largest economy will expand 7.5% this year, according to a median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, up from an earlier forecast of 7.1% in February this year.
Internationally, China is looking to increase investment from multinational corporations, Vice Premier Li Keqiang said. "We continue our opening-up policy and oppose trade protectionism in any form," Li told visiting GE Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Immelt, saying that China offered opportunities for multinationals to expand their business and investment. Li said the government is trying to foster the development of high-tech and strategic emerging industries.
China, the world’s second-biggest energy user, may raise gasoline and diesel prices by about 10% by next weekend. “We believe China is forced into a corner” and will raise prices “as soon as this weekend, and if not, very likely by next weekend following OPEC’s strong resolve to support higher oil prices,” said Gordon Kwan, the head of energy research at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.
In signs of gold fever hitting China, gold prices quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased by an average 6.74% in the past month to the current level of about 209 yuan a gram. "Gold demand in China in the first quarter rose to 114 tons, up 2% over the same period last year, solely boosted by an increase in jewelry demand," according to the World Gold Council. The report also noted that global demand for gold rose 38% year-on-year to 1,016 tons. China is the world's second largest gold consuming country after India.
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