11 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

11-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: China CPI falls 1.4% in May, Fidelity's Ma says China's economic growth may beat predictions, China's property sales surge, Baosteel hikes July steel prices, Chinese stocks closed up on Wednesday.

Top 5 headlines

China’s Consumer Prices Decline 1.4%, Aiding Recovery

• Prices dropped 1.4% in May from a year earlier, after falling 1.5% in April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.
• The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 16 economists was for a 1.3% decline. Producer prices fell 7.2%, the most on record.
• “China’s economy is already rebounding and as soon as it regains momentum, prices will return to positive territory,” said Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney.

Fidelity’s Ma Says China’s Economic Growth May Beat Predictions

• China’s economic outlook is the “brightest” in Asia and growth may exceed investor expectations, Fidelity International fund manager Stephen Ma said.
• The nation’s economy will expand 7.5% this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month, up from a 7.1% forecast in February.
• “China has done all the right things to support the domestic economy,” Ma said. “I believe China’s GDP growth will continue to surprise people on the upside.” Fidelity International is the London-based affiliate of Fidelity Investments, the world’s largest mutual- fund company.

China’s Property Sales Surge, Add to Recovery Signs

• Sales rose 45.3% to 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) in the first five months of 2009 from a year earlier and real- estate investment growth quickened to 6.8%, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
• “As developers run down inventory rapidly, they will soon start to buy land and increase spending again,” said Frank Gong, chief China economist and strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. “Property investment, which accounts for 10% of China’s GDP and is a trigger for growth in related sectors, will become a strong driving force in China’s recovery.”
• The China Se Shang Property Index fell -1.6%, paring this year’s gain to +116%.

Baosteel hikes July steel prices as pressure mounts

• China's top steelmaker, Baosteel, has raised July prices for major steel product prices by more than 10%, industry sources said, as it faces the threat of higher-than-expected iron ore costs.
• Baosteel, or Baoshan Iron and Steel, is deep in talks with Australian miners Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton over iron ore prices, which it wants reset to 2007 levels, meaning a price cut of at least 40%.
• Rio Tinto has already agreed a 33% cut with other Asian mills, forcing Baosteel to choose between a fixed price, albeit more than it wanted to pay, or the uncertain spot market.

Chinese shares up 1% as pace of price declines slows

• Hong Kong lead Chinese stocks, up +4.03% at 18,786, followed by Shanghai up +1.02% to 2,816, and Shenzhen and Taiwan both up +0.75% to 10,281 and 6,462 respectively.
• China State Shipbuilding rose +1.22% to 65.52 yuan, while Guangzhou Shipyard International gained +1.04% to 22.41 yuan.
• Lianyungang Port shares rose by the daily limit of +10% to 7.87 yuan and Shenzhen Expressway Company gained +9.97% to 6.40 yuan.

Financial Indicators:

Metric

Value

Point change

% change

Hang Seng Index	18,786	727.17	4.03%
Shanghai Composite	2,816	28.36	1.02%
Shenzhen Component	10,821	80.65	0.75%
TAIEX	6,462	47.88	0.75%
CNY/USD	6.8330	-0.0024	-0.04%

Source: China Economic Scan

10 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

10-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: Chinese vehicle sales surge 34% in May, Chinese government increases export subsidies, NBS to add 10 000 CPI survey locations, Tsingtao to buy Shandong's Jinan Beer for 250m yuan, Chinese stocks close up on Tuesday.

Top 5 headlines

China’s May Vehicle Sales Surge 34% on Subsidies, Tax

• China vehicle sales surged 34% in May on tax cuts and government subsidies, extending the country’s lead over the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market this year.
• Chinese drivers bought 1.12 million vehicles last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in a statement today. Passenger-vehicle sales jumped 47% to 829,100.
• “Sales of small cars have been driving growth,” said Ricon Xia, an analyst with Daiwa Institute of Research (H.K.) Ltd. in Shanghai. “Whether automakers could reverse profit declines this year will depend on demand for big cars and heavy duty trucks that carry bigger profit margins.”

Exporters get sops to fight crisis

• The government has raised tax rebates for more than 600 export items, some up to the maximum level possible, as it stepped up efforts to provide succor to businesses battling the global economic slowdown.
• The Ministry of Finance said yesterday that it had increased tax rebates ranging from 5% to 17% on export products, including ethanol, toys and sewing machines, effective June 1.
• The export tax rebate scheme allows enterprises to get back part or all of the money they have paid in value-added tax, which stands at up to 17%, for items that have gone into the production of export goods.

NBS to add 10,000 CPI survey locations

• China will add 10,000 new consumer price index (CPI) survey locations in an effort to make the statistics more reliable.
• Liu Jianwei, vice dean with the department of urban social and economic survey of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday that it is planning to have a total of 60,000 survey spots.
• Currently, the NBS has 3,000 people who gather prices from almost 600 items of commodities and services from roughly 50,000 survey spots at more than 550 counties and cities across the country, said Liu.

Tsingtao to buy Shandong's Jinan Beer for 250m yuan

• Tsingtao Beer, China's second largest brewer, said yesterday it would buy Jinan Beer, a beer producer from Shandong province, for 250 million yuan ($36.66 million).
• Tsingtao said it had signed a contract with Shandong Commercial Group to buy its subsidiary, which has an annual beer output of 300,000 kiloliters and 1.08 billion yuan in total assets.
• Jinan Beer has 30-40% market share in Jinan, the provincial capital of Shandong, and the deal, when finalized, would help push up the share that Tsingtao Beer has in Shandong to 80%, analysts said.

Hong Kong Stocks Fall on Valuation Concerns; Foxconn Tumbles

• Mainland stocks closed up on Tuesday with the Shenzhen Component up +1.21% to 10,740, and the Shanghai Composite up +0.71% to 2,788, but the Hang Seng closed down -1.07% at 18,058, and the TAIEX continued it's 6 day losing streak down -3.22% and about 7% week on week at 6,414.
• Foxconn International Holdings Ltd., the world’s largest contract maker of mobile phones, lost -4%. Citic Pacific Ltd., a specialty-steel maker, lost -6.2%.
• China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. plummeted -8.3% after Warburg Pincus LLC pulled out of an investment in the company. Pacific Basin, Hong Kong’s largest bulk shipper, slumped -3.9%. The company was also hurt by a 4.3% slide in commodity cargo rates.

Financial Indicators:

Metric

Value

Point change

% change

Hang Seng Index	18,058	-194.9	-1.07%
Shanghai Composite	2,788	19.55	0.71%
Shenzhen Component	10,740	128.34	1.21%
TAIEX	6,414	-213.63	-3.22%
CNY/USD	6.8354	-0.0019	-0.03%

Source: China Economic Scan

9 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

9-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: PSBC lends 70 bln yuan to SMEs, Top Chinese banker calls for US sales of yuan bonds, China Eastern and Shanghai Air to merge, Vestas to boost global sales and China workforce, Chinese stocks finish mixed on Monday.

Top 5 headlines

Postal Savings Bank of China extends 70 bln yuan in small loans

• The Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) has extended 70 billion yuan (10.2 billion U.S. dollars) in loans to small and medium-sized enterprises since it started giving small loans last June, PSBC governor Tao Liming said Sunday.
• PSBC lent 3-400 million yuan on average every day to small and medium-sized enterprises, and total credit was expected to exceed 100 billion yuan at the end of this year, said Tao.
• The PSBC's small loan program was first launched in Henan Province last June. It targets small and medium-sized companies and requires no collateral. The maximum loan for small business owners is 100,000 yuan, and for medium-sized firms 3 million yuan.

Top China banker calls for U.S. sales of yuan bonds

• A top Chinese banker on Sunday called on the U.S. government and the World Bank to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong and Shanghai to encourage the development of debt markets in those centers and to promote the yuan as a major international currency.
• "I think the U.S. government and the World Bank can consider the possibility of issuing renminbi bonds in the Hong Kong market and the Shanghai market," said Guo Shuqing, the chairman of state-controlled China Construction Bank.
• Last Wednesday, banking groups HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Bank both said they were preparing for yuan-denominated bond issuance in China to help the country develop its local-currency financial markets.

China Eastern, Shanghai Air to Combine After Losses

• China Eastern Airlines will combine with Shanghai Airlines after joint losses of 16.5 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) last year prompted the government to bail out the two state-controlled carriers.
• The combined group would have 306 planes and more than 600 routes, giving it a 50 percent share of air travel in China’s financial capital.
• “It shows that the government wants to improve the performance of state-owned companies through consolidation,” said Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. in Hong Kong. And, “since they have accepted money from the government there is no other choice for them” except to follow the government’s plans.

Vestas to Boost Global Sales, Add China Workforce

• Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s biggest maker of wind turbines, plans to increase global sales by 20% this year as it adds production centers and boosts workforce by a third in China.
• Vestas’s workforce in China will rise to 3,000 by 2009 from about 2,000 at the end of last year, Lars Andre Andersen, the head of the company’s China unit, said.
• 4 new production centers will also open this year, taking its number in China to 10, said Andersen. Vestas had sales of about 6 billion euros ($8.3 billion) in 2008.

China’s Stocks Rise for First Time in Three Days; Vanke Climbs

• Chinese closed mixed on Monday, the Hang Seng lost -2.28% at 18,253, the Shenzhen Component also fell -0.52% to 10,612, but the Shanghai Composite managed a gain up +0.52% to 2,768.
• Vanke jumped +4.7% after Shenzhen trading after the company reported the first monthly gain in the average price of its apartments this year. Minsheng Banking rallied +5.8% on the move to replenish capital. Jiangxi Copper, China’s biggest producer of the metal, dropped -4.2% on lower commodity prices.
• “Expectations of an economic recovery are still driving this rally,” said Wang Peng, Shanghai-based chief investment officer at First Trust Fund Management Co., which oversees about $2.1 billion. “In the short term, the market needs a break to allow some profit-taking pressure to be relieved.”

Financial Indicators:

Metric

Value

Point change

% change

Hang Seng Index	18,253	-426.14	-2.28%
Shanghai Composite	2,768	14.45	0.52%
Shenzhen Component	10,612	-55.36	-0.52%
TAIEX	6,628	-139.08	-2.06%
CNY/USD	6.8373	0.0013	0.02%

Source: China Economic Scan

China Economic Scan Weekly Economic Review - 7 June 2009

China Economic Scan Weekly Economic Review - 7 June 2009

7/06/2009. Source: China Economic Scan. Callum Thomas, Managing Director, China Economic Scan

Last week in the Chinese economy, aside from the visit by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, there were a few interesting economic developments. Among data releases were the official PMI, and industrial profits, there were also inflation forecasts and statements from government bodies.

The official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was at a seasonally adjusted 53.1 in May after registering 53.5 in April, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said. A reading of the PMI above 50 indicates an expansion.

Chinese industrial profits in the first 4 months in 22 provinces fell 27.9% from a year earlier, narrowing a drop seen in Q1, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. In April, 23 out of 39 sectors saw their profit growth rebound or their losses narrow, the NBS said in a statement on its website (www.stats.gov.cn).

China's banking regulator and the Finance Ministry warned banks against issuing risky loans, saying they must step up their risk management. Banks extended 5.17 trillion yuan ($757.2 billion) in loans in the first 4 months of 2008, exceeding the government's minimum target of 5 trillion yuan for all of 2009 and fanning fears that banks are taking undue credit risks.

A Bank of Communications report said China’s CPI is likely to set a fourth consecutive drop in May and to remain negative in the first half of 2009. BoCom expects food prices to drop slightly in May. The report indicated a range of –1.8% to –1.2%, based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Commerce.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it would seek to actively encourage foreign investment in China, China's actual foreign direct investment fell 22.5% on year in April to $5.89 billion, bringing actual FDI in the first 4 months of this year to $27.67 billion, down 21% from a year earlier.

There were roughly 666,000 foreign-invested companies in China as of end April. These foreign-invested firms contributed to 29.7% of China's overall industrial output in 2008.

China Economic Scan is a leading provider of daily updates on the Chinese economy and financial markets. China Economic Scan focuses on bringing you the facts from the hundreds of articles that compete for your attention each day. You save time and due to our willingness to probe further and add value with additional facts and research; you get an edge in staying on top of the key developments in the world’s 3^rd largest economy. For more info visit www.chinaeconomicscan.com

8 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

8-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: China and Japan pledge to boost global economic recovery, Russia says yuan could be reserve currency in a decade, China may improve fuel pricing, China Green Agriculture to boost sales on demand, Bain Capital agrees to buy into China's GOME.

Top 5 headlines

China, Japan pledge to boost global economic recovery

• China and Japan on Sunday vowed to jointly promote world economic recovery during a meeting of top ministers and senior officials in Tokyo, Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone said.
• Nakasone also said both countries would "cooperate in domestic economic measures, in actively supporting developing countries in Asia through international financial institutions, and in preventing protectionism."
• Nakasone was speaking after a day of talks with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Wang Qishan that aimed to boost trade and cooperation between Japan and China, the world's second and third biggest economies respectively.

Russia says yuan could be reserve currency in decade

• China's yuan could become a world reserve currency in the next decade, Russia's finance minister said on Saturday, as Moscow seeks to whittle away at the U.S. dollar's dominance.
• "I think the shortest route would be if China liberalised its economy and allowed the convertibility of the yuan," said Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
• "This could take 10 years but after that the yuan would be in demand and it is the shortest route to the creation of a new world reserve currency and I think China needs to think about this," Kudrin said at a panel discussion at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

China May Improve Fuel Price-Setting Mechanism, Observer Says

• China’s planning agency is considering improving the mechanism under which fuel prices are adjusted, the Economic Observer reported, citing an unidentified government official.
• The move is aimed at curbing hoarding and speculating on gasoline, the report said, without providing more details.
• Under a mechanism introduced in December, China may adjust fuel prices when crude-oil costs change more than 4% over 22 straight working days, the NDRC said in May.

China Green Agriculture to Boost Sales on Demand

• China Green Agriculture Inc., a producer of organic fertilizer, plans to boost sales by up to 40% in each of the next 4 years through acquisitions and increased domestic demand, its chief financial officer said.
• “Chinese consumers, because of safety issues, are willing to pay a higher premium for organic food,” Ying Yang said in a phone interview from Denver. “We’ve been actively looking for opportunities domestically to acquire.”
• China Green Agriculture, which is based in Xian, China, fell -2.5% to $7.80. The shares have more than doubled since March 9, when they started trading on the American Stock Exchange.

Bain Capital agrees to buy into China's GOME: source

• U.S. private equity giant Bain Capital has agreed to buy a major stake in China's top home appliance retailer GOME, a source with direct knowledge of the deal said on Sunday.
• The 2 parties were still finalizing financial details at the weekend and an official announcement is expected as early as next week.
• On Wednesday, Bain entered into exclusive talks to buy a major stake in GOME, dubbed as China's Best Buy, after months of competition with other potential investors including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Warburg Pincus.

Source: China Economic Scan

6 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

6-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: Chinalco "Very Disappointed" with Rio Tinto deal collapse, inflation expectations could benefit stocks, ICBC buys Bank of East Asia's Canadian unit, China considers penalty tax on polluting businesses, Chinese stocks fall slightly but close the week up.

Top 5 headlines

Chinalco Is ‘Very Disappointed’ With Rio Rejection

• Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation’s largest producer of the material, said it is “very disappointed” with the rejection of its proposed $19.5 billion investment in Rio Tinto Group.
• “Our proposal presented an outstanding value creating opportunity for all Rio Tinto shareholders and would have provided a strong platform for a long-term strategic partnership between the two companies,” said Xiong Weiping, president of Chinalco, as it’s also known.
• The failed deal would have been the largest single foreign investment by a Chinese company. Rio, the world’s third-largest mining company, said today it will raise as much as $15.2 billion in a share sale, helping reduce $38.9 billion in debt.

Analyst: Inflation expectations benefit stocks

• Although surging prices are not good for the economy, inflation expectations can drive up asset prices and boost stocks in the Chinese market, a senior investment banker told the official China Securities Journal on Thursday.
• According to Frank Gong, JP Morgan's China chief economist, financial authorities worldwide are now taking various measures against economic recession and deflation.
• But these moves, if not well managed, could incur inflation risks in the future.

ICBC’s Canadian Foray May Prompt North American Push

• Industrial & Commercial Bank of China agreed to buy control of Bank of East Asia’s Canadian unit, gaining a foothold for expansion in North America with its first acquisition on the continent.
• ICBC is making the Canadian foray to “learn the lay of the land and decide whether or not to make a bigger push,” John Aiken, an analyst with Dundee Securities Corp., said in an interview. “ICBC has the potential to deploy a ton of capital within the domestic marketplace if they so choose.”
• ICBC, which has more customers than Russia has people and $247 billion of cash and equivalents, has spent more than $6 billion on acquisitions in Indonesia, Macau and South Africa during the past 2 years. Chairman Jiang Jianqing aims to triple the share of profit coming from abroad to 10%.

China mulls penalty tax on polluting businesses

• Zhang Lijun, vice minister of environmental protection, said collecting environmental taxes from polluting enterprises was one of the directions of the country's tax system reform.
• "It has been put on the agenda of the ministries of finance, environment protection and the state administration of taxation," Zhang told a press conference. "We are jointly studying the issue, and when conditions are ripe, we'll launch the taxation system on polluting enterprises."
• Zhang admitted that air in a few cities remained "very polluted" and the problem of acid rain remained serious.

China’s Stocks Decline, Paring Weekly Gain; Developers Retreat

• Chinese stocks slipped slightly on the Mainland with the Shenzhen Component down -0.62% to 10,667, the Shanghai Composite down -0.48% to 2,754, however The Hang Seng registered a gain of +0.96% to 18,680.
• Gemdale, the country’s fourth-largest developer by market value, retreated -1.6% after almost tripling this year. Haitong Securities dropped -2.3% as the stock traded near its priciest level in a year. Liquor maker Sichuan Swellfun gained +6.8% after Diageo boosted its stake in the parent.
• “Stocks are expensive so the rally needs a pause,” said Larry Wan, Shanghai-based deputy chief investment officer at KBC-Goldstate Fund Management Co., which oversees about $583 million in assets.

Financial Indicators:

Metric

Value

Point change

% change

Hang Seng Index	18,680	176.76	0.96%
Shanghai Composite	2,754	-13.35	-0.48%
Shenzhen Component	10,667	-66.61	-0.62%
TAIEX	6,767	-18.96	-0.28%
CNY/USD	6.8360	0.0032	0.05%

Source: China Economic Scan

5 June 2009 | China Economic Scan

5-June-2009

China Economic Scan - Your daily update on the Chinese economy.

In this edition: BoCom said it expects Chinese CPI to fall again in May, Merrill Lynch says Chinese banks' debt funding costs to rise, Chery Automobile raised 2.9bln yuan in growth capital from private equity investors, BNP Paribas lowers Chinese stocks to neutral - says buy India instead, Chinese stocks fall slightly.

Top 5 headlines

BoCom expects negative CPI growth in H1

• China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is set to record the fourth consecutive month of decrease in May and to remain negative in the first half of this year, according to a Bank of Communications (BoCom) report released Monday.
• Food prices are expected to drop slightly in May with 1.5 percentage points of the decline due to the tail-raising factor, which was the main reason for the CPI decline in May, according to the report.
• Based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, the report said CPI growth would be between minus 1.8% and minus 1.2% with the median minus 1.5% in May, making it the fourth consecutive month of negative growth since February this year.

Chinese Banks’ Debt Financing Costs Will Rise, Merrill Says

• Chinese banks face higher costs for selling subordinated bonds as tighter capital regulations stifle demand for the securities following a surge in sales, according to Bank of America's Merrill Lynch.
• Chinese banks sold 103 billion yuan ($15 billion) of bonds in the first 5 months this year, more than the combined tally for 2007 and 2008, Merrill analysts Winnie Wu, Alistair Scarff and Michael Li said in a report dated yesterday. Lenders plan another 700 billion yuan of sales before 2012, they said.
• “The window for banks’ cheap debt financing is closing in the next three years,” the analysts wrote. “The supply-demand dynamics will drive up the cost of future sub-debt financing.”

Chery nets 2.9b yuan for growth

• Chery Automobile Co, China's biggest automaker, said yesterday that it has raised 2.9 billion yuan from local private-equity investors to boost its development and expansion plans.
• "The capital will be used in our clean energy program, heavy-duty program and a new sedan plant we are planning to build," said Jin Yibo, Chery's spokesman.
• The investors, all local funds, include Bohai Industrial Investment Fund Management, which is majority owned by Bank of China; Tianjin-based CDH Investments; China Huarong Asset Management Corp; and Shenzhen-based China Science & Merchants Venture Capital Management Co Ltd, according to Chery's statement.

China Stocks Lowered at BNP Paribas; Switch to India

• China stocks were downgraded at BNP Paribas, which said investors should instead buy more Indian equities because valuations, fund flows and liquidity in the South Asian nation have become more favorable.
• Chinese shares were cut to “neutral” from “overweight,” analysts led by Clive McDonnell said in a report today, keeping India “overweight.”
• The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index may extend its rally by another 11%, BNP said, advising customers to buy State Bank of India and sell Chinese peers including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.

Hong Kong’s Stocks Decline as Shippers Tumble on China Warning

• Chinese stocks fell slightly on Thursday with the Hang Seng down -0.40% to 18,503, the Shanghai Composite down -0.41% to 2,767, but Shenzhen Component closed up 0.20% to 10,734, but the TAIEX shaved off -1.55% to 6,786.
• Hopson, a Hong Kong-based developer of real estate in China, plunged -7.9%. Esprit Holdings, a Hong Kong-based global clothing retailer, declined -4.6% on concern product demand will decline after a worse-than-expected report on the U.S. services sector.
• Sinotrans Shipping, the dry- bulk arm of China’s third-largest shipping group, tumbled -7.4%. Shipping stocks accounted for six of the 10 biggest falls on the 201-member Hang Seng Composite Index. Trade faces “unprecedented difficulties,” Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said yesterday.

Financial Indicators:

Metric

Value

Point change

% change

Hang Seng Index	18,503	-73.7	-0.40%
Shanghai Composite	2,767	-11.35	-0.41%
Shenzhen Component	10,734	21.41	0.20%
TAIEX	6,786	-107.08	-1.55%
CNY/USD	6.8328	0.0022	0.03%

Source: China Economic Scan